Pakistan has lost the war, but its General Munir has 'won'

Pakistan's military has never won a war, and never lost an election. So goes the old joke. The new joke could be: Even if Pakistan loses a war, its General will still manage to win. Pakistan has promoted its army chief General Asim Munir to the rare rank of Field Marshal on Tuesday. This five-star rank is the highest military honour in Pakistan and has been awarded only once before. Coming after Pakistan's humiliating defeat in Operation Sindoor when it had to request India to stop pounding its military bases, the bizarre promotion has triggered jokes on social media. Many called General Munir a "failed marshal". General Munir had reportedly gone hiding in a bunker when India began firing BrahMos missiles at Pakistan's military bases.

Unlike General Ayub Khan, who had promoted himself to the rank of field marshal in 1959 following his coup in Pakistan the previous year, Munir was appointed to the position by the civilian government. However, given the subservient nature of Pakistan's civilian government, some believe Munir may have promoted himself to strengthen his grip on the military, to emphasize the military's supremacy over the government and to signal that he might not just fade away.

From "failed marshal" to Field Marshal
The timing and context of General Munir's promotion are striking. India’s airstrikes reportedly crippled several Pakistani military installations, released satellite images of destruction, and intercepted nearly all retaliatory drones and missiles. Pakistan, for its part, failed to substantiate any significant damage inflicted on India. Yet, within this atmosphere of operational failure and domestic skepticism, Munir has emerged not diminished but elevated.

This elevation, while symbolic in terms of command authority, is deeply consequential in political, institutional, and historical terms. To understand the significance of Munir’s promotion, it is necessary to look beyond the ceremonial nature of the title and consider how it consolidates power, reshapes civil-military relations, and reflects a well-worn path taken by Pakistan’s previous military rulers.

At first glance, promoting a general immediately after a failed military confrontation would seem counterintuitive. However, in the context of Pakistan’s civil-military dynamics and the political role of the armed forces, the decision reveals a calculated manoeuvre. As Field Marshal, Munir is now symbolically elevated above the routine chains of command and military scrutiny. The rank is effectively a lifetime appointment, and while it carries no formal operational command, it confers prestige and immunity. It insulates him from any potential court martial or internal dissent that might arise from criticisms of military failures during Operation Sindoor. With this rank, Munir has been moved above the fray, shielded from both internal and external demands for accountability. It is, in essence, a protective coronation at a time when the military’s performance has drawn unusual scrutiny in Pakistan.

Munir’s leadership had faced growing restiveness within the officer corps and ranks prior to the India conflict, especially as economic hardship and political instability eroded the military's traditional prestige. Pakistan's Operation Bunyan-ul-Marsoos, launched in response to Operation Sindoor, has been recast domestically as a defensive success despite its utter failure. The narrative, carefully curated through state media and intelligence-managed optics, positions Munir as a vigilant defender who stood firm against external aggression. The elevation to Field Marshal consolidates this narrative and projects internal confidence, sending a clear message to both critics and challengers within the military hierarchy.

Historically, Pakistan’s military has used external conflict, especially with India, as a tool to regain legitimacy and centralize authority. From Ayub Khan’s incursion into Kashmir in 1965 to Pervez Musharraf’s Kargil adventure in 1999, each confrontation has been repurposed to galvanize nationalist sentiment and position the military as Pakistan’s only credible institution.

In Munir’s case, Operation Sindoor appears to have served a similar purpose. Though militarily damaging, it has been reimagined through domestic channels as an act of resolve in the face of Indian aggression. Munir’s promotion thus completes the cycle: a setback transformed into a symbolic triumph, used to cement control in both the military and the political landscape.

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Will Munir become another military dictator?
Munir's promotion represents yet another lurch toward unchecked militarization of governance in Pakistan. While Pakistan is nominally a democracy, the army has remained the ultimate power broker. Since the ousting of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and the ensuing political vacuum, the military — under Munir — has steadily expanded its role beyond security into economic policy, media management and judicial oversight. This Field Marshal title reinforces that shift. It is not merely a reward for Munir; it is a statement that the military intends to retain command over Pakistan’s national direction. Civilian leaders are expected to orbit around this power center, not challenge it.

Imran Khan’s ouster, incarceration, and exclusion from the political process have largely been orchestrated with the implicit — if not overt — support of the military. His populist appeal, particularly among the youth and urban middle classes, posed a long-term threat to military primacy in national politics. By neutralizing Khan and then elevating Munir to Field Marshal, the army has sent a definitive message: there is no space for parallel power centers. The democratic process is once again subordinated to institutional supremacy.

In the short term, this may bring a veneer of stability. In the long term, however, it may exacerbate the cycle of repression and resistance, and possibly even lead to military dictatorship. Many are already calling his promotion as a soft coup by the military.

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What Munir's promotion means for India
For India, Munir's elevation signals that Pakistan’s military will retain, if not escalate, its influence over security policy. Diplomatic engagement with Pakistan is unlikely to yield substantive results, as any normalization will be filtered through a military lens. India can expect a more hostile Pakistan under its new field marshal .

Following the embarrassment of Operation Sindoor, Pakistan's military establishment under Munir may feel compelled to reassert deterrence capability. This could take the form of increased nuclear signaling, more assertive rhetoric, or even smaller-scale provocations to demonstrate resolve. The strategic stability may become more brittle as Pakistan might seek to restore the credibility it lost in the recent conflict.

Munir’s promotion to Field Marshal is not just a ceremonial gesture. It is a strategic signal — both to domestic audiences and international observers — that Pakistan’s military intends to maintain and deepen its hold on national life. At a time when the country faces economic collapse, political fragmentation and diplomatic isolation, the elevation of Munir may offer the army a temporary consolidation of power.